Effect of affordability of alcohol on the level of alcohol consumption in Russia

Unfortunately, this experience is not fully applicable to Russia. Previous attempts to reduce the level of alcohol consumption by reducing its affordability did not achieve their goal due to the existence of an extensive shadow alcohol market [1,2,4]. In previous studies it was shown that in Russia the rise in prices for vodka reduces its consumption, but increases the consumption of moonshine [14-16].

Unfortunately, this experience is not fully applicable to Russia. Previous attempts to reduce the level of alcohol consumption by reducing its affordability did not achieve their goal due to the existence of an extensive shadow alcohol market [1,2,4]. In previous studies it was shown that in Russia the rise in prices for vodka reduces its consumption, but increases the consumption of moonshine [14][15][16].
Nevertheless, in the history of the state alcohol policy in Russia there are examples of the successful use of excise policy in order to reduce alcohol consumption. In particular, during the last three decades of the 19th century, the level of alcohol sales in the Russian Empire decreased by almost two times, which, most likely, was a consequence of the increase in the excise tax on vodka [17]. Analysis of the data for this period showed that an increase in the excise tax rate by 1% was accompanied by a decrease in the level of alcohol sales by 0.5%. Moreover, the decline in sales during this period was not accompanied by an increase in the consumption of unregistered alcohol [17].
Over the past decades, the level of affordability of alcohol in Russia has been subject to signifi cant fl uctuations [10,12,15].
Dramatic changes in the affordability of alcohol can be viewed as a natural experiment that allows one to study the effect of the availability of alcohol on the level of alcohol consumption. Therefore, the purpose of this work was to study the effect of the affordability of alcohol on the level of its sale, the total level of consumption, as well as the consumption of unrecorded alcohol in Russia in the post-Soviet period. as well as the consumption of unrecorded alcohol in Russia in the period from 1991 to 2015 was carried out. Statistical data are obtained from the annual reports of Rosstat for the corresponding period. The overall level of alcohol consumption was estimated using an indirect method [18].

Materials and methods
The affordability of alcohol was defi ned as the number of litres of vodka that can be purchased for an average monthly salary. It should be noted that a more adequate indicator for assessing the affordability of alcohol is the level of real disposable income of the population. In the present study, the average monthly salary was used as its surrogate, which may be one of the methodological limitations of this work.
Statistical analysis (Spearman's correlations, linear regression) was carried out using the STATISTICA 10 package.
The elasticity coeffi cient was derived from the following equation: e = y'x (x/y), were y -the sale/consumption of alcohol and x -the price of alcohol. Elasticity represents the percentage change in a dependent variable associated with a 1% increase in an independent variable.

Discussion
The results of the analysis indicate that in Russia the affordability of alcohol is positively correlated with its sale and negatively correlated with the consumption of unrecorded alcohol. In addition, there is a weak negative relationship between the affordability of alcohol and the overall level of alcohol consumption. In general, this research evidence confi rms the idea that the affordability of alcohol is one of the factors that determine the level of its sale [13]. These fi ndings reproduce the results of previous studies using Russian data, which showed that an increase in vodka prices leads to an increase in the consumption of moonshine [14].
The relationship between the affordability of alcohol and the overall level of alcohol consumption is not so straightforward, It should be noted, however, that the consumption of unrecorded alcohol, in addition to the affordability of alcohol, is determined by a number of other factors. In particular, a sharp increase in the consumption of unrecorded alcohol in the fi rst half of the 1990s could be due to an increase in its physical availability due to the abolition of the state alcohol monopoly [1,14]. In addition, the decrease in the consumption of unrecorded alcohol in the 2000s, to a certain extent, could be due to an increase in the level of income of the population, since it is known that as well-being grows, consumers prefer higher quality and more expensive alcohol [1,16].
The decline in the level of consumption of unrecorded alcohol, which began in 2003, took place against the background of the phased introduction of legislative measures against the illegal production and sale of alcohol [19,20]. The growth in the level of consumption of unrecorded alcohol in the last years could be triggered by the economic crisis, which reduced the income of the population and a decrease in the affordability of licensed alcohol due to the increase in excise taxes [2,8,19].

Conclusion
This study revealed a direct relationship between the affordability of alcohol and the level of its sale, as well as an inverse relationship between the affordability of alcohol and the consumption of unrecorded alcohol in Russia. In general, the obtained data confi rm the existing idea that reducing the affordability of alcohol is an effective measure to reduce the level of its sale. However, the existence of a shadow alcohol market does not allow full use of price regulation as an effective means of alcohol policy. Therefore, an important task in the framework of the implementation of the comprehensive alcohol policy is to minimize the shadow alcohol market.